Modeling the effects of deforestation on wild macaw populations

Overview:

“Deforestation of the Amazon rainforest is negatively affecting native populations of a large number of animal species. This model studies the evolution of the macaw population in a given area of the Amazon rainforest in relation to deforestation. Macaw nesting is usually limited to hollows in the trunks of large trees, which are precisely those of interest to the timber sector and, therefore, those that are commonly cut down.

The objective of this individual-based model is to simulate the reproductive behavior of macaws in the Amazon rainforest, together with the effects of forest exploitation regulated by the following variables: intensity of deforestation, age of the forest at which deforestation processes began, and proportion of large trees remaining after a deforestation process. In addition, another factor has been introduced that can help macaws mitigate the effects of deforestation, such as the installation of artificial nests, which can be placed in younger trees, allowing them to be occupied by breeding pairs.

Throughout the simulations, the model provides us with instantaneous values such as the time elapsed, the number of macaws in the system, as well as the percentage of mature forest land and deforested land. In addition, it provides a graph showing the size of the macaw population broken down by sex, and another indicating the availability of nesting sites, both natural and artificial.

It is important to mention that the model has numerous limitations. To begin with, it is a closed system. Secondly, it only takes into consideration the evolution of the population based on the possibility of reproduction, not the availability of food resources or any other factor that may intervene in the population dynamics of these species, such as natural disasters, for example. Likewise, it does not use or represent real numerical parameters, so any interpretation that can be drawn from the results is of a purely qualitative nature.